I was asked my opinion on the recent Singapore Elections and Cabinet appointments on the La Salle informal alumni mailing list and decided my answer might be a good post.
The questions I was answering essentially were whether Lee Kuan Yew engineered the recent upheavals, whether Singapore is now truly on the path to being a true democracy in the internationally accepted definition of that or whether all this is just a face-saving move by the Lees.
My response follows (language censored for this post):
Allow me to paint a backdrop first by waffling for a few paragraphs on some history:
The new cabinet lineup was announced yesterday and threw up a few surprises which indicates the possibility the PAP is finally listening to the public.
Out goes Mah Bow Tan, Minister for National Development (inc housing) who has defended stoutly his policies which have culminated in housing prices rising meteorically (try 30% in 2 years!) and thereby making a 25-30 year loan inevitable for first-time home buyers. Mind you this means their entire CPF savings go into servicing the loan i.e. when they hit 55-60 and are getting ready for retirement, they have virtually no savings in their CPF accounts.
Housing is a complex thing here, a fact not helped by the lack of transparency in setting HDB home prices. Government claims HDB loses S$2 billion annually due to subsidies etc, but when one component of the price must be the land price which the government sets, the calculation becomes a little murky. HDB is supposed to be subsidised housing but flats are starting at S$280,000+ now so we all understand, painfully, that subsidised ≠ affordable housing.
Out goes Raymond Lim whom I dislike. An arrogant man, his Ministry of Transport completely failed to respond to immigration policy and Singapore's 1 million increase in population in the last 2 years (or roughly 20-25% if I am not mistaken). Public transport is inadequate (ha! never thought Singapore would have inadequate public transport, right?) and Raymond's solution has been to set up more and more Electronic Road Pricing gantries, the most expensive of which deducts about S$4. A trip down the Central Expressway from Ang Mo Kio to the the CBD at the wrong time (namely between 8:30 and 9:00 on a workday morning) can cost you S$8.50.
A couple of years ago, when oil prices had gone up slightly, Raymond Lim announced a rise in public transport fares claiming it impacted public transport operators negatively. When oil prices subsequently fell and he was asked why the fares did not come down in tandem, he claimed that oil prices were but a small component of operational costs. Then a year or so later, when oil prices and fares rose in tandem again, he was asked for clarification and he arrogantly challenged the attendees at the press conference 'You want free public transport? Can! I can give you free public transport! But then I have to raise GST to 10%. You want to pay 10% GST?!' If I was there I would have asked him how he, as Minister of Transport, could single-handedly influence the setting of the GST rate and also might have said 'That's a great idea, Minister! I would pay 10% GST anytime for that!'
He is also my MP and when the residents' committee organised a Raymond Lim Challenge soccer competition, I opined privately that if they painted his face on the footballs, they'd be overwhelmed by the response.
Out goes Wong Kan Seng who refused to accept responsibility for the almost comical escape of possibly the most dangerous terrorist in the region. Instead the supervisor and some guards got the sack while he just simply urged people to move on from this mistake. Not a peep of an apology.
And that is what marked out LKY's and GCT's time - no apology for screw-ups while they paid themselves top-dollar.
Besides the salaries they pay themselves, they also get a bonus tied to the GDP. Last year's GDP rose 14% or some astonishing figure like that which meant they all got about 8 months' bonus...
See this article for a good summary of the problems of incompetence and salaries.
So, in general terms, the public has been suffering and probably would have gone right on suffering quietly if not for a few things:
1. Decreased accountability.
The ministers mentioned above fucked up, and some did so big-time. None paid the price. This country got where it was because of the idea of accountability and transparency. Sadly, the former has not been in evidence recently. And people have just gotten fed up. Don't forget the Sovereign Wealth Funds Temasek Holdings and Government Investment Corporation lost a combined total of anything from S$90 billion to S$130 billion. We don't know, but we do know no one's head rolled - least of all Mdm Ho Ching's, the PM's wife who heads Temasek.
2. Decreased Transparency.
When former President Ong Teng Cheong, acting in his capacity of President and in charge of the national reserves, asked for a list of the reserves, he was given the runaround. For daring to speak up he was shunned and eventually when this much loved figure died (albeit after his presidency), he was denied a state funeral. Even LKY's wife got a bigger funeral...
3. Increased arrogance
LKY's statement that if the opposition won the Aljunied GRC tthey would have '5 years to repent' hit a nerve.
Raymond's Lim's GST statement.
and more...
They all point to an arrogant ruling elite who think they know best and everyone else should just 'sit down and shut up' - if you want to know the origin of that quote, ask me - it's another long story...
Fact is the PAP had lost touch with the public and although they were extremely good to and with corporate citizens, at the end of the day it is Siti Bakar who votes, not Citibank.
I think there was no real tipping point here, just a confluence of a few things including the rise of alternative media, how close the average Singaporean is to the edge, clearly flawed government policies, and the very real pain felt by many in Singapore. Think of this: households in the lowest 10% of economy earn S$1400 per month. Households in the upper 10% average $23,700. If that's not an income gap problem I don't know what is.
There were many instances in the recent GE where it was clear the PAP's strategy and philosophy was flawed.
Vivian Balakrishnan, the Minister for Community Youth and Sports attacked an opposition member, suggesting he was a homosexual. This lost him the pink vote and amazingly, a lot of other voters as well who thought it was none of his business. He also trained his sights on an opposition politician's S$60 billion dollar Singapore Makeover plan, saying it was no small change, would take years to accumulate that amount etc. This coming from the guy who blew the S$104 million Youth Olympics budget by almost S$300 million. Yes, you read that right - it finally cost almost S$400 million. And he kept his job...
The PAP, in an attempt to appear young, put forward a 27-year old candidate, Tin Pei Ling who made waves for having a cutesy picture of herself with a Kate Spade shopping bag - instantly injecting Kate Spade into everyone's consciousness. And Pei Ling into everyone's vitriol-loaded sights. Her cutesy looks, foot-stamping antics and substanceless motherhood and apple-pie statements made her few friends and many dislikers. Did I just coin a new word there? Hey, this woman, in an interview, declared her greatest regret in life is not taking her parents to Universal Studios on Sentosa Island. Errr her parents are still alive... and did someone mention the poor and starving in Singapore? Or that Marital Rape is still not outlawed?
The opposition National Solidarity Party put forward an even younger candidate who blew everyone away. Nicole Seah belied her 24 years by speaking confidently, sensibly, visionarily and with great empathy and became second most popular politician in cyberspace after LKY.
See a comparison between the two.
Unfortunately, Pei Ling, contesting in a Group Representative Constituency, rode into Parliament on Goh Chok Tong's coattails and now earns S$15000 a month as an MP, while holding on to the Ernst & Young job. The team with Nicole Seah fought against the incumbent, GCT, and cut his margin to 50-something%. Remarkable.
This GE, the opposition fielded very capable candidates which seriously dented the PAP's claim to having an exhaustive, comprehensive, detailed recruitment and assessment process. The PAP also shot itself in the foot when one of their candidates withdrew at the last minute and was replaced by a virtual unknown who waltzed into parliament a day later as he stood in the only GRC that was uncontested. So much for careful, considered choosing.
On the other hand, some candidates from the opposition were high calibre (and in some instances, with proven track records) individuals - one even served as GCT's perm secretary for some years!
OK enough waffling....
Did LKY engineer this? Honestly, I can't see that. I think the old man is so full of himself he really can't accept that things have moved on. His speeches were a liability right through the hustings. Honestly, GCT's speeches were not much better either...
I suspect this is PM asserting himself finally. He has seen the mood on the ground and has been shocked by it. True the next elections is 5 years away and Singaporeans being Singaporeans, if times are OK by then, they will feel very little inclination to rock the boat.
Having said that, 60% is a very low approval rating. If not for pork-barrel politics (much of which didn't work this time around) and gerrymandering, the PAP would have lost more seats. Two constituencies were lost by a handful of votes and there were even rumblings of discontent with the apparent different standards of elections officers at different polling stations and so on.
For all his visionless steering, Lee Hsien Loong is not stupid. I think he senses this is the time to make his mark. And he has a good case - the old methods are clearly not working. If ever there was a chance for him to state his case, this was it.
Yesterday's cabinet appointments indicate that PM is willing to make sweeping and daring changes. Although they've spun it in a predictable way (3 of them wanted to resign before elections, my foot!) let's not take anything away from PM's appointments. There are a couple of questionable appointments, but on the whole we all hope this is an indication that the PAP is finally listening to the people.
Whether the new ministers will implement new policies which drive at solving some of the problems that have cropped up is something else.
Is this a face-saving move? I don't think so - I think it is indeed a calculated drive forward.
And is this a sign of a real democracy? Well, besides pork-barrels and gerrymandering, the media has been much more liberal, and the opposition has been able to get to the people in a way they couldn't previously, so yes, broadly speaking it bodes well. There's some way to go yet, but it seems there has been progress and we should be grateful for that.
At least for the immediate future.
The questions I was answering essentially were whether Lee Kuan Yew engineered the recent upheavals, whether Singapore is now truly on the path to being a true democracy in the internationally accepted definition of that or whether all this is just a face-saving move by the Lees.
My response follows (language censored for this post):
Allow me to paint a backdrop first by waffling for a few paragraphs on some history:
The new cabinet lineup was announced yesterday and threw up a few surprises which indicates the possibility the PAP is finally listening to the public.
Out goes Mah Bow Tan, Minister for National Development (inc housing) who has defended stoutly his policies which have culminated in housing prices rising meteorically (try 30% in 2 years!) and thereby making a 25-30 year loan inevitable for first-time home buyers. Mind you this means their entire CPF savings go into servicing the loan i.e. when they hit 55-60 and are getting ready for retirement, they have virtually no savings in their CPF accounts.
Housing is a complex thing here, a fact not helped by the lack of transparency in setting HDB home prices. Government claims HDB loses S$2 billion annually due to subsidies etc, but when one component of the price must be the land price which the government sets, the calculation becomes a little murky. HDB is supposed to be subsidised housing but flats are starting at S$280,000+ now so we all understand, painfully, that subsidised ≠ affordable housing.
Out goes Raymond Lim whom I dislike. An arrogant man, his Ministry of Transport completely failed to respond to immigration policy and Singapore's 1 million increase in population in the last 2 years (or roughly 20-25% if I am not mistaken). Public transport is inadequate (ha! never thought Singapore would have inadequate public transport, right?) and Raymond's solution has been to set up more and more Electronic Road Pricing gantries, the most expensive of which deducts about S$4. A trip down the Central Expressway from Ang Mo Kio to the the CBD at the wrong time (namely between 8:30 and 9:00 on a workday morning) can cost you S$8.50.
A couple of years ago, when oil prices had gone up slightly, Raymond Lim announced a rise in public transport fares claiming it impacted public transport operators negatively. When oil prices subsequently fell and he was asked why the fares did not come down in tandem, he claimed that oil prices were but a small component of operational costs. Then a year or so later, when oil prices and fares rose in tandem again, he was asked for clarification and he arrogantly challenged the attendees at the press conference 'You want free public transport? Can! I can give you free public transport! But then I have to raise GST to 10%. You want to pay 10% GST?!' If I was there I would have asked him how he, as Minister of Transport, could single-handedly influence the setting of the GST rate and also might have said 'That's a great idea, Minister! I would pay 10% GST anytime for that!'
He is also my MP and when the residents' committee organised a Raymond Lim Challenge soccer competition, I opined privately that if they painted his face on the footballs, they'd be overwhelmed by the response.
Out goes Wong Kan Seng who refused to accept responsibility for the almost comical escape of possibly the most dangerous terrorist in the region. Instead the supervisor and some guards got the sack while he just simply urged people to move on from this mistake. Not a peep of an apology.
And that is what marked out LKY's and GCT's time - no apology for screw-ups while they paid themselves top-dollar.
Besides the salaries they pay themselves, they also get a bonus tied to the GDP. Last year's GDP rose 14% or some astonishing figure like that which meant they all got about 8 months' bonus...
See this article for a good summary of the problems of incompetence and salaries.
So, in general terms, the public has been suffering and probably would have gone right on suffering quietly if not for a few things:
1. Decreased accountability.
The ministers mentioned above fucked up, and some did so big-time. None paid the price. This country got where it was because of the idea of accountability and transparency. Sadly, the former has not been in evidence recently. And people have just gotten fed up. Don't forget the Sovereign Wealth Funds Temasek Holdings and Government Investment Corporation lost a combined total of anything from S$90 billion to S$130 billion. We don't know, but we do know no one's head rolled - least of all Mdm Ho Ching's, the PM's wife who heads Temasek.
2. Decreased Transparency.
When former President Ong Teng Cheong, acting in his capacity of President and in charge of the national reserves, asked for a list of the reserves, he was given the runaround. For daring to speak up he was shunned and eventually when this much loved figure died (albeit after his presidency), he was denied a state funeral. Even LKY's wife got a bigger funeral...
3. Increased arrogance
LKY's statement that if the opposition won the Aljunied GRC tthey would have '5 years to repent' hit a nerve.
Raymond's Lim's GST statement.
and more...
They all point to an arrogant ruling elite who think they know best and everyone else should just 'sit down and shut up' - if you want to know the origin of that quote, ask me - it's another long story...
Fact is the PAP had lost touch with the public and although they were extremely good to and with corporate citizens, at the end of the day it is Siti Bakar who votes, not Citibank.
I think there was no real tipping point here, just a confluence of a few things including the rise of alternative media, how close the average Singaporean is to the edge, clearly flawed government policies, and the very real pain felt by many in Singapore. Think of this: households in the lowest 10% of economy earn S$1400 per month. Households in the upper 10% average $23,700. If that's not an income gap problem I don't know what is.
There were many instances in the recent GE where it was clear the PAP's strategy and philosophy was flawed.
Vivian Balakrishnan, the Minister for Community Youth and Sports attacked an opposition member, suggesting he was a homosexual. This lost him the pink vote and amazingly, a lot of other voters as well who thought it was none of his business. He also trained his sights on an opposition politician's S$60 billion dollar Singapore Makeover plan, saying it was no small change, would take years to accumulate that amount etc. This coming from the guy who blew the S$104 million Youth Olympics budget by almost S$300 million. Yes, you read that right - it finally cost almost S$400 million. And he kept his job...
The PAP, in an attempt to appear young, put forward a 27-year old candidate, Tin Pei Ling who made waves for having a cutesy picture of herself with a Kate Spade shopping bag - instantly injecting Kate Spade into everyone's consciousness. And Pei Ling into everyone's vitriol-loaded sights. Her cutesy looks, foot-stamping antics and substanceless motherhood and apple-pie statements made her few friends and many dislikers. Did I just coin a new word there? Hey, this woman, in an interview, declared her greatest regret in life is not taking her parents to Universal Studios on Sentosa Island. Errr her parents are still alive... and did someone mention the poor and starving in Singapore? Or that Marital Rape is still not outlawed?
The opposition National Solidarity Party put forward an even younger candidate who blew everyone away. Nicole Seah belied her 24 years by speaking confidently, sensibly, visionarily and with great empathy and became second most popular politician in cyberspace after LKY.
See a comparison between the two.
Unfortunately, Pei Ling, contesting in a Group Representative Constituency, rode into Parliament on Goh Chok Tong's coattails and now earns S$15000 a month as an MP, while holding on to the Ernst & Young job. The team with Nicole Seah fought against the incumbent, GCT, and cut his margin to 50-something%. Remarkable.
This GE, the opposition fielded very capable candidates which seriously dented the PAP's claim to having an exhaustive, comprehensive, detailed recruitment and assessment process. The PAP also shot itself in the foot when one of their candidates withdrew at the last minute and was replaced by a virtual unknown who waltzed into parliament a day later as he stood in the only GRC that was uncontested. So much for careful, considered choosing.
On the other hand, some candidates from the opposition were high calibre (and in some instances, with proven track records) individuals - one even served as GCT's perm secretary for some years!
OK enough waffling....
Did LKY engineer this? Honestly, I can't see that. I think the old man is so full of himself he really can't accept that things have moved on. His speeches were a liability right through the hustings. Honestly, GCT's speeches were not much better either...
I suspect this is PM asserting himself finally. He has seen the mood on the ground and has been shocked by it. True the next elections is 5 years away and Singaporeans being Singaporeans, if times are OK by then, they will feel very little inclination to rock the boat.
Having said that, 60% is a very low approval rating. If not for pork-barrel politics (much of which didn't work this time around) and gerrymandering, the PAP would have lost more seats. Two constituencies were lost by a handful of votes and there were even rumblings of discontent with the apparent different standards of elections officers at different polling stations and so on.
For all his visionless steering, Lee Hsien Loong is not stupid. I think he senses this is the time to make his mark. And he has a good case - the old methods are clearly not working. If ever there was a chance for him to state his case, this was it.
Yesterday's cabinet appointments indicate that PM is willing to make sweeping and daring changes. Although they've spun it in a predictable way (3 of them wanted to resign before elections, my foot!) let's not take anything away from PM's appointments. There are a couple of questionable appointments, but on the whole we all hope this is an indication that the PAP is finally listening to the people.
Whether the new ministers will implement new policies which drive at solving some of the problems that have cropped up is something else.
Is this a face-saving move? I don't think so - I think it is indeed a calculated drive forward.
And is this a sign of a real democracy? Well, besides pork-barrels and gerrymandering, the media has been much more liberal, and the opposition has been able to get to the people in a way they couldn't previously, so yes, broadly speaking it bodes well. There's some way to go yet, but it seems there has been progress and we should be grateful for that.
At least for the immediate future.
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